Attribution Inflation

What This Page Answers

Attribution inflation happens when reported platform performance overstates the true incremental impact of ads. It often appears in retargeting, view-through-heavy campaigns, brand search, and automated campaigns that capture existing demand.

Common Causes

  • Long attribution windows

  • View-through credit

  • Retargeting warm users

  • Brand demand capture

  • Returning customer conversions

  • Cross-channel overlap

  • Pixel duplication

  • Offline imports mapped incorrectly

How To Diagnose

Compare:

  • Platform ROAS vs MER

  • Retargeting vs prospecting results

  • Click-through vs view-through conversions

  • New vs returning customer share

  • Incrementality tests

  • Backend revenue vs attributed revenue

Use Platform-Reported vs Blended Performance, Incrementality, and Prospecting vs Retargeting.

Practical Rule

Attribution is useful for operation. It is not proof that the ad caused every conversion it claims.

Source Notes